6 Month Evaluation ... Thur, 7/1

I have been reporting in real time what these models have been saying for the past 6 months. This is what the performance has been. I don't believe there are any errors, if there are they are unintentional. Note that the SP 500 index started the year at 1115, and is now at 1030, down 7.6% for the year. All my models are positive for the year!

Gold Stock model [details]: It started the year in the middle of a long trade. Since then there have been 6 trades (5 - 10 days long), so much of the time the model has been in cash. The return YTD is 9.9%... basis the XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver index), no leverage.

NDX Nasdaq 100 [details]: There are 2 NDX 100 models...

The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. It began the year in the middle of a trade, and there have been 5 trades (each 3-4 days length), since then. The YTD profit is 4.7%, not leveraged, basis the NDX 100 index.

NDX Trading model This was started at the beginning of the year and has done well. YTD the return is 24.1%, not leveraged, and it spends about 20% of the time in cash.

SP500 Long Term Model [details]: This model does not usually switch often. This year, so far, is not doing as well as previous years (but we have 1/2 a year to go). YTD the return is 3.2%.

SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model [details] : This model only goes Long or is in cash, for those who have variable life insurance policies or retirement accounts where one does not have the opportunity to short the market. YTD the return is 2.9%.

For Thur, 7/1, close:

Gold Stock model [details]: The prediction numbers are barely positive. The model is 100% cash.

NDX Nasdaq 100 [details]: Currently, the overall prediction numbers are mildly positive.

The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up 8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year up 66%)... currently this model is 100% Cash.

NDX Trading model The NDX Trading model moves in and out of long and short positions. ...currently this model is now 100% in cash.

SP500 Long Term Model [details]: This model is 33% short now. Interactive Brokers has the opening price on 5/10 at 1148.00. I sold at 1158.00 This model was 100% Long (from 67% Long) on the open Tuesday, 5/4. Recently: Model went 100% long on 2/22 open (1110.00). Then cut position to 67% long Monday 4/19 open (1192.06). Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often.

SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model [details] : This model is neutral, 100% cash, at 1155.00 5/10 near open. This model switched to Long at 1108.01 (on the close 2/22/10). Previous signals: Long on 3/30/09 at 787.53, to cash 1/25/10 at 1096.78.

Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0% ...

For Wed, 6/30, close:

Gold Stock model [details]: The prediction numbers are barely negative. The model is 100% cash.

NDX Nasdaq 100 [details]: Currently, the overall prediction numbers are neutral.

The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up 8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year up 66%)... currently this model is 100% Cash. Trade just finished made a nice profit.

NDX Trading model The NDX Trading model moves in and out of long and short positions. ...currently this model is now 100% in cash.

SP500 Long Term Model [details]: This model is 33% short now. Interactive Brokers has the opening price on 5/10 at 1148.00. I sold at 1158.00 This model was 100% Long (from 67% Long) on the open Tuesday, 5/4. Recently: Model went 100% long on 2/22 open (1110.00). Then cut position to 67% long Monday 4/19 open (1192.06). Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often.

SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model [details] : This model is neutral, 100% cash, at 1155.00 5/10 near open. This model switched to Long at 1108.01 (on the close 2/22/10). Previous signals: Long on 3/30/09 at 787.53, to cash 1/25/10 at 1096.78.

Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0% ...

For Tue, 6/29, close:

Gold Stock model [details]: The prediction numbers are barely positive. The model is 100% cash.

NDX Nasdaq 100 [details]: Currently, the overall prediction numbers are slightly positive.

The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up 8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year up 66%)... currently this model is 100% Cash. It will go Long on the close, ONLY IF the VIX (Volatility Index) closes on 6/29 at 27.15 or lower.

NDX Trading model The NDX Trading model moves in and out of long and short positions. ...currently this model is now 100% in cash.

SP500 Long Term Model [details]: This model is 33% shortnow. Interactive Brokers has the opening price on 5/10 at1148.00. I sold at 1158.00 This model was 100% Long(from67% Long) on the open Tuesday, 5/4. Recently:Model went 100% long on 2/22 open (1110.00). Then cut position to67% long Monday 4/19 open (1192.06). Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often.

SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model [details] : This modelis neutral, 100% cash, at 1155.00 5/10 near open. This modelswitched to Long at 1108.01 (on the close 2/22/10). Previous signals: Long on 3/30/09 at 787.53, to cash 1/25/10 at 1096.78.

Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0% ...

For Mon, 6/28, close:

Gold Stock model [details]: The prediction numbers are barely positive. The model is 100% cash.

NDX Nasdaq 100 [details]: Currently, the overall prediction numbers are neutral.

The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up 8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year up 66%)... currently this model is 100% Cash. Trade just finished made a nice profit.

NDX Trading model The NDX Trading model moves in and out of long and short positions. ...currently this model is now 100% in cash.

SP500 Long Term Model [details]: This model is 33% short now. Interactive Brokers has the opening price on 5/10 at1148.00. I sold at 1158.00 This model was 100% Long(from67% Long) on the open Tuesday, 5/4. Recently: Model went 100% long on 2/22 open (1110.00). Then cut position to67% long Monday 4/19 open (1192.06). Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often.

SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model [details] : This model is neutral, 100% cash, at 1155.00 5/10 near open. This modelswitched to Long at 1108.01 (on the close 2/22/10). Previous signals: Long on 3/30/09 at 787.53, to cash 1/25/10 at 1096.78.

Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0% ...

For Frid, 6/25, close:

Gold Stock model [details]: The prediction numbers are barely positive. The model is 100% cash.

NDX Nasdaq 100 [details]: Currently, the overall prediction numbers are moderately positive.

The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up 8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year up 66%)... currently this model is 100% Short, at 1895.84. It closed out 1/2 of the position on the close today 6/25 (1844.59 a 2.7% profit). The other 1/2 position short will close out, on the close Friday.

NDX Trading model The NDX Trading model moves in and out of long and short positions. ...currently this model is now 100% in cash. IF the CBOE Nasdaq Volatility (VXN) closes FRIDAY, 6/25, at 26.50 or lower, the model will enter a new Long position.

SP500 Long Term Model [details]: This model is 33% short now. Interactive Brokers has the opening price on 5/10 at 1148.00. I sold at 1158.00 This model was 100% Long(from67% Long) on the open Tuesday, 5/4. Recently: Model went 100% long on 2/22 open (1110.00). Then cut position to67% long Monday 4/19 open (1192.06). Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often.

SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model [details] : This model is neutral, 100% cash, at 1155.00 5/10 near open. This model switched to Long at 1108.01 (on the close 2/22/10). Previous signals: Long on 3/30/09 at 787.53, to cash 1/25/10 at 1096.78.

Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0% ...