On Wednesday, 4/1, close:
Gold stock Trading Model : will go to a cash position (GDX was sold at 38.47)
SP500 Model : Long from 750.74
NDX In and Out Model : *will initiate a short position on the open 4/1 and then will initiate a long position on the close* This is highly irregular.
NDX Continuous Model : *will initiate a short position on the open 4/1 and then will initiate a long position on the close* This is highly irregular.
NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : will be in a cash position. It exited 1/2 position on Tuesday's close, as mentioned, and the other 1/2 position on Wednesday's close, 4/1.
Long-Short Model : will then be: long NDX100, short DOW .. Since it is the beginning of the month, this model will rebalance so that 50% is long (the NDX) and 50% is short (the DOW).

On Monday, 3/30, close:
Gold stock Trading Model : will remain in a short position, from GDX 38.47
SP500 Model : Long from 750.74
NDX In and Out Model : will remain in a long position
NDX Continuous Model : will remain in a long position.
NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : will remain in a long position, planning to exit 1/2 position on Tuesday's close.
Long-Short Model : will then be: long SP500, short DOW

On Friday, 3/27, close:
Gold stock Trading Model : will remain in a short position, from GDX 38.47
SP500 Model : Long from 750.74
NDX In and Out Model : will remain in a long position
NDX Continuous Model : will remain in a long position.
NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : will remain in a long position.
Long-Short Model : will then be: long NDX100, short DOW

On Thursday, 3/26, close:
Gold stock Trading Model : will remain in a short position, from GDX 38.47
SP500 Model : Long from 750.74
NDX In and Out Model : will remain in a long position
NDX Continuous Model : will remain in a long position.
NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : will go to a long position.
Long-Short Model : will remain: long DOW, short NDX100

On Wednesday, 3/25, close:
Gold stock Trading Model : IF the GDX close is above 37.80, it will move from cash back to a short position.
SP500 Model : Long from 750.74
NDX In and Out Model : will remain in a long position
NDX Continuous Model : will remain in a long position.
NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : will remain in cash.
Long-Short Model : will then be: long DOW, short NDX100

On Tuesday, 3/24, close:
Gold stock Trading Model : IF the GDX close is above 37.80, it will move from cash back to a short position.
SP500 Model : Long from 750.74
NDX In and Out Model : will go to a long position
NDX Continuous Model : will remain in a long position.
NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : will remain in cash.
Long-Short Model : will then be: long SP500, short DOW

For Monday, 3/23, close:
Gold stock Trading Model : IF the GDX close is above 38.00, it will move from cash back to a short position.
SP500 Model : Long from 750.74 (still looking to enter about 740, may modify this entry)
NDX In and Out Model : will remain in a cash position
NDX Continuous Model : will remain in a long position.
NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : will remainin cash.
Long-Short Model : will then be: long DOW, short SP500

Gold stock Trading Model : On the close Friday, 3/20, IF the GDX is above 38.00, it will move from cash back to a short position.
SP500 Model : Long from 750.74 (still looking to enter about 740, may modify this entry)
NDX In and Out Model : On the close Friday, 3/20, it remains in a cash position
NDX Continuous Model : On the close Friday, 3/20, it remains in a long position.
NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : Is now in cash.
Long-Short Model : On the close Friday, 3/20: long DOW, short NDX

Long-Short Model

The Long Short model uses ETFs (DXD - short DOW, DDM - long DOW, QID - short NDX, QLD - long NDX, SDS - short SP500, SSO - long SP500) to have both a long and short position, simultaneously, each day. It trades fairly frequently as you can see below. Here are the positions on the close each day recently:

3/12/2009	sp	ndx
3/16/2009	ndx	dow
3/17/2009	dow	ndx
3/18/2009	ndx	sp
3/19/2009	sp	dow

As with the other systems, we already know what the position will be for the close a day ahead. So we know what the position will be on the close today, 3/19. The short position in the SP from 3/18 will change to a short position in the DOW, and the long position in the NDX will be liquidated and a long position in the SP will be established.

So if one was trading the ETFs, on tonight's close, one would Sell the position in the SDS (short the SP500 established on the close 3/18) and Buy the DXD (short DOW) with the proceeds from the sale of the of the SDS. And also Sell one's position in the QLD (long the NDX established on the close 3/18) and Buy the SSO (long SP500) with the proceeds from the QLD sale.

One begins with 50% of account in the long postion and 50% in the short position. And about once a month I rebalance so the account returns to a 50:50 position.

Gold stock Trading Model : On the close today, Wednesday, because of the drawdown, it went to a cash position on the close
SP500 Model : Long from 750.74 (still looking to enter about 740, may modify this entry)
NDX In and Out Model : On the close Thursday, 3/19, it remains in a cash position
NDX Continuous Model : On the close Thursday, 3/19, it remains in a long position.
NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : Is now in cash.

Gold stock Trading Model : On the close Wednesday, 3/18, it remains in a short position
SP500 Model : Long from 750.74 (still looking to enter about 740)
NDX In and Out Model : On the close Wednesday, 3/18, it goes to a cash position
NDX Continuous Model : On the close Wednesday, 3/18, it remains in a long position.
NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : Is now in cash.

Gold stock Trading Model : On the close Tuesday, 3/17, it changes to a short position
SP500 Model : Long from 750.74 (looking to enter about 740)
NDX In and Out Model : On the close Tuesday, 3/17, it remains in a long position
NDX Continuous Model : On the close Tuesday, 3/17, it remains in a long position.
NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : Is now in cash.

Gold Stocks Trading Model: The pattern recognition model I use has been very volatile, that is why I would not trade more than 10% of my account with this model. But it has been very profitable in the past. I sometimes buy call options when the model says to go long, and put options when it says to be short. I use the XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Stock Index) and the GDX (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF). If one does not desire to use options, one can buy the GDX or sell it short, since it is an ETF, and trades like a stock.

This model trades fairly frequently, and again, all trades are executed on the close. And I know on the close what the signal will be for the next day's close. Recently, it bought on the close 3/11, with the GDX at 31.34 and exited that position (liquidated to cash) on the close Friday, 3/13 with the GDX at 33.08. It will go long again on the close Monday, 3/16.

SP500 Mechanical Trading Model : In 2007, I studied a simple, mechanical trading system based on the SP500. I reviewed data since 1/1/91. It is not a perfect system, but is easy to implement trading SP500-based ETF's or mutual funds. Here are the results from 1991 - 2007, starting with $1000:

The system trades only about once every 34 trading days, that is about once every 6 weeks. It is either long or short the SP500.

$ 1,275	1991	27.5%
$ 1,340	1992	5.1%
$ 1,408	1993	5.1%
$ 1,474	1994	4.7%
$ 1,885	1995	27.9%
$ 2,322	1996	23.2%
$ 3,004	1997	29.4%
$ 3,902	1998	29.9%
$ 4,778	1999	22.5%
$ 4,616	2000	-3.4%
$ 7,062	2001	53.0%
$ 10,290	2002	45.7%
$ 12,949	2003	25.8%
$ 12,915	2004	-0.3%
$ 13,607	2005	5.4%
$ 14,372	2006	5.6%
$ 15,936	2007	10.9%

Starting on 9/19/07, I began reporting the signals.
Since 9/19/07: SP500 Signal: up 2.9% , SP500 Index: down 50.5%

For 2008: SP500 Signal: down 2.8% , SP500 Index: down 38.5%
For 2009, year-to-date: SP500 Signal: up 10.3% , SP500 Index: down 16.2%

In most instances, one can enter the trade 1-3% better, 2-4 days after the signal is given. Since it gave a buy signal on 3/11 close, at 750.74, I will look to enter the signal Monday, below 740.

Here is the continuation of the above table, taken to the present date:

$ 15,936	2007	10.9%
$ 15,484	2008	-2.8%
$ 17,084	2009	10.3%

The $1000 on 1/1/91 would now be worth $17,084. That is up over 16%, compounded per year.

In and Out Model : On the close Monday, 3/16, it remains in a long position
Continuous Model : On the close Monday, 3/16, it remains in a long position.
Short-term, 3-4 day Model : Is now in cash.

SP500 mechanical signal I follow for the main market (based on the SP500), and it tends to follow longer trends, gave a buy on the close today. In almost all cases, when a signal is given, one can enter about 2% better than the signal entry price sometime in the following 2-4 days (today SP500 closed at 750.74).
In and Out Model : On the close tomorrow, 3/13, it remains in a long position
Continuous Model : On the close tomorrow, 3/13, it remains in a long position.
Short-term, 3-4 day Model : Is now in cash.

In and Out Model : On the close tomorrow, 3/12, it goes to a long (money market).
Continuous Model : On the close tomorrow, 3/12, it remains in a long position.
Short-term, 3-4 day Model : Is now in cash.

In and Out Model : On the close tomorrow, 3/11, it remains in cash (money market).
Continuous Model : On the close tomorrow, 3/11, it goes to a long position.
Short-term, 3-4 day Model : Is now in cash.

In and Out Model : On the close tomorrow, 3/10, it remains in cash (money market).
Continuous Model : On the close tomorrow, 3/10, it remains with a short position.
Short-term, 3-4 day Model : Is now in cash.

In and Out Model : On the close tomorrow, 3/9, it remains in cash (money market).
Continuous Model : On the close tomorrow, 3/9, it remains with a short position.
Short-term, 3-4 day Model : Is now in cash.

In and Out Model : On the close tomorrow, 3/6, it remains in cash (money market).
Continuous Model : On the close tomorrow, 3/6, it remains with a short position.
Short-term, 3-4 day Model : Is now in cash. For the 34 signals since 1/1/07, it is up 86.7%, with 76% winning trades.

In and Out Model : On the close tomorrow, 3/5, it remains in cash (money market).
Continuous Model : On the close tomorrow, 3/5, it moves from long position to a short position.
Short-term, 3-4 day Model : Closed out its position today and is now in cash. For the 34 signals since 1/1/07, it is up 86.7%, with 76% winning trades.

In and Out Model : On the close tomorrow, 3/4, it moves from short position to cash (money market).
Continuous Model : On the close tomorrow, 3/4, it moves from short position to a long position.
Short-term, 3-4 day Model : Is in a short position, 1/2 of the position moved to cash on the close today (day 3) and the other 1/2 will move to cash on the close tomorrow, 3/4.

In and Out Model: Went short the NDX100 (buying the QID) on the close 2/27, and on the close tomorrow 3/3, it will remain short.
Continuous Model: Went short the NDX100 (buying the QID) on the close 2/19, and on the close 3/2 (today) it went long the NDX100 (buying the QLD). On the close tomorrow 3/3, it will go back short the NDX100 (buying the QID).
Short-term, 3-4 day Model: Recent Sell signal on the close 2/20 (NDX 1172), exited 1/2 the position on day 3 (2/25) at 1160, and exited the other 1/2 on day 4 (2/26) at 1127. HOWEVER, another short-term, 3-4 day sell signal was generated on the close 2/26 (NDX at 1127). So on the close tomorrow, 3/3, which is day 3, the signal will exit 1/2 of the position.

New 3 Models

I have concentrated on pattern recognition with respect to the NDX100 (Nasdaq100 index) and previous blogs at this site refer to that. Those concepts are incorporated into these models. All trades are made on the close of trading.

All models trade long or short the NDX100 index. You may use ETF's that mimic the NDX100 or you may trade the QQQQ, or even a mutual fund that tracks the NDX100. The first model is called the "In and Out" Model. It trades the NDX100 for 1-3 days (long or short), then may go to cash (money market) for a few days, then back long (or short) the NDX100 again for a few days. It is "in the money market" about 48% of the days.

The second model is called the "Continuous" Model. At the close of each day, it is either long or short the NDX100, it is never in the money market.

The third model is called the "short-term, 3-4 day" Model. It looks for a good set up in the NDX100 and goes long or short for 3-4 days. It trades on the average once every 3 weeks. Over the past 26 months it has had 33 trades, about 76% are profitable. If you exit (to the money market) with 1/2 of your investment on the close the 3rd day, and with the other 1/2 on the close the 4th day, then the profit over the past 26 months has been 82%.