For Mon, 2/1, close:
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are positive now. The model gave a buy signal on the close, 1/21 with XAU at 159.49. If the XAU were to get up to 176.05, then profits should be taken at that point. If the XAU continues lower, then the model would use 146.80 as a Stop Loss point to liquidate the position. If neither is hit, then the position will be liquidated in 9-10 trading days. This long signal will officially exit the position on the close Thursday, 2/4.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up +8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now 100% in cash. Currently, the overall prediction numbers are neutral, and falling. Potential sell signal in a day or two.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not consistently trading it until it proves itself. The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... currently this model is 100% in cash. Was short from 1874.00. On Thursday, the target of 1780 was hit (great!), so position liquidated back to cash.
SP500 Long Term Model : This model is short 33% from 1092.40.
Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : This model switched to cash at 1096.78 (on the close 1/25/10). Previous signal: went Long the SP500 on 3/30/09 at 787.53.
Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0%.
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Thursday, January 28, 2010
For Fri, 1/29, close:
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are positive now. The model gave a buy signal on the close, 1/21 with XAU at 159.49. If the XAU were to get up to 176.05, then profits should be taken at that point. If the XAU continues lower, then the model would use 146.80 as a Stop Loss point to liquidate the position. If neither is hit, then the position will be liquidated in 9-10 trading days. If the XAU rises above 165.9, then raise the Stop Loss to breakeven.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up +8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now 100% in cash. Currently, the overall prediction numbers are slightly positive, and falling.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not consistently trading it until it proves itself (although I did take this recent sell signal, because of other factors that agreed with a sell off). The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... currently this model is 100% in cash. Was short from 1874.00. On Thursday, the target of 1780 was hit (great!), so position liquidated back to cash. For Friday's close, IF the VXN (nasdaq volatility) closes at 24.78 or below, THEN this model will switch to 100% long on the close.
SP500 Long Term Model : This model is short 33% from 1092.40.
Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : This model switched to cash at 1096.78 (on the close 1/25/10). Previous signal: went Long the SP500 on 3/30/09 at 787.53.
Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0%.
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are positive now. The model gave a buy signal on the close, 1/21 with XAU at 159.49. If the XAU were to get up to 176.05, then profits should be taken at that point. If the XAU continues lower, then the model would use 146.80 as a Stop Loss point to liquidate the position. If neither is hit, then the position will be liquidated in 9-10 trading days. If the XAU rises above 165.9, then raise the Stop Loss to breakeven.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up +8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now 100% in cash. Currently, the overall prediction numbers are slightly positive, and falling.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not consistently trading it until it proves itself (although I did take this recent sell signal, because of other factors that agreed with a sell off). The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... currently this model is 100% in cash. Was short from 1874.00. On Thursday, the target of 1780 was hit (great!), so position liquidated back to cash. For Friday's close, IF the VXN (nasdaq volatility) closes at 24.78 or below, THEN this model will switch to 100% long on the close.
SP500 Long Term Model : This model is short 33% from 1092.40.
Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : This model switched to cash at 1096.78 (on the close 1/25/10). Previous signal: went Long the SP500 on 3/30/09 at 787.53.
Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0%.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
For Thur, 1/28, close:
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are positive now. The model gave a buy signal on the close, 1/21 with XAU at 159.49. If the XAU were to get up to 176.05, then profits should be taken at that point. If the XAU continues lower, then the model would use 146.80 as a Stop Loss point to liquidate the position. If neither is hit, then the position will be liquidated in 9-10 trading days. If the XAU rises above 165.9, then raise the Stop Loss to breakeven.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up +8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now 100% in cash. Currently, the overall prediction numbers are slightly positive.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not consistently trading it until it proves itself (although I did take this recent sell signal, because of other factors that agreed with a sell off). The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... currently this model is 100% short from 1874.00. For Thursday's close IF the VXN (nasdaq volatility) closes at 23.80 or below, THEN this model will switch to 100% long on the close.
SP500 Long Term Model : This model is short 33% from 1092.40. I entered short today about 1100.00.
Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : This model switched to cash at 1096.78 (on the close 1/25/10). Previous signal: went Long the SP500 on 3/30/09 at 787.53.
Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0%.
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are positive now. The model gave a buy signal on the close, 1/21 with XAU at 159.49. If the XAU were to get up to 176.05, then profits should be taken at that point. If the XAU continues lower, then the model would use 146.80 as a Stop Loss point to liquidate the position. If neither is hit, then the position will be liquidated in 9-10 trading days. If the XAU rises above 165.9, then raise the Stop Loss to breakeven.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up +8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now 100% in cash. Currently, the overall prediction numbers are slightly positive.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not consistently trading it until it proves itself (although I did take this recent sell signal, because of other factors that agreed with a sell off). The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... currently this model is 100% short from 1874.00. For Thursday's close IF the VXN (nasdaq volatility) closes at 23.80 or below, THEN this model will switch to 100% long on the close.
SP500 Long Term Model : This model is short 33% from 1092.40. I entered short today about 1100.00.
Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : This model switched to cash at 1096.78 (on the close 1/25/10). Previous signal: went Long the SP500 on 3/30/09 at 787.53.
Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0%.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
For Wed, 1/27, close:
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are positive now. The model gave a buy signal on the close, 1/21 with XAU at 159.49. If the XAU were to get up to 176.05, then profits should be taken at that point. If the XAU continues lower, then the model would use 146.80 as a Stop Loss point to liquidate the position. If neither is hit, then the position will be liquidated in 9-10 trading days. If the XAU rises above 165.9, then raise the Stop Loss to breakeven.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up +8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now 100% in cash. Currently, the overall prediction numbers are slightly positive.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not consistently trading it until it proves itself (although I did take this recent sell signal, because of other factors that agreed with a sell off). The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... currently this model is 100% short from 1874.00. Target profit at 1780.00 and Move Stop Loss to breakeven, 1874.00.
SP500 Long Term Model : This model is short 33% from 1092.40. I entered short today about 1100.00.
Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : This model switched to cash at 1096.78 (on the close 1/25/10). Previous signal: went Long the SP500 on 3/30/09 at 787.53.
Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0%.
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are positive now. The model gave a buy signal on the close, 1/21 with XAU at 159.49. If the XAU were to get up to 176.05, then profits should be taken at that point. If the XAU continues lower, then the model would use 146.80 as a Stop Loss point to liquidate the position. If neither is hit, then the position will be liquidated in 9-10 trading days. If the XAU rises above 165.9, then raise the Stop Loss to breakeven.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up +8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now 100% in cash. Currently, the overall prediction numbers are slightly positive.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not consistently trading it until it proves itself (although I did take this recent sell signal, because of other factors that agreed with a sell off). The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... currently this model is 100% short from 1874.00. Target profit at 1780.00 and Move Stop Loss to breakeven, 1874.00.
SP500 Long Term Model : This model is short 33% from 1092.40. I entered short today about 1100.00.
Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : This model switched to cash at 1096.78 (on the close 1/25/10). Previous signal: went Long the SP500 on 3/30/09 at 787.53.
Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0%.
Monday, January 25, 2010
For Tue, 1/26, close:
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are positive now. The model gave a buy signal on the close, 1/21 with XAU at 159.49. If the XAU were to get up to 176.05, then profits should be taken at that point. If the XAU continues lower, then the model would use 146.80 as a Stop Loss point to liquidate the position. If neither is hit, then the position will be liquidated in 9-10 trading days. If the XAU rises above 165.9, then raise the Stop Loss to breakeven.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up +8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now 100% in cash. Currently, the overall prediction numbers are slightly positive.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not consistently trading it until it proves itself (although I did take this recent sell signal, because of other factors that agreed with a sell off). The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... currently this model is 100% short from 1874.00. Target profit at 1780.00 and Stop Loss at 1982.00.
SP500 Long Term Model : This model is short 33% from 1092.40. Based on past model performance and the current oversold condition, I will go 33% short if the SP500 gets up to 1108.00.
Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53. This model switched to cash at 1096.78 (on the close 1/25/10).
Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0%.
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are positive now. The model gave a buy signal on the close, 1/21 with XAU at 159.49. If the XAU were to get up to 176.05, then profits should be taken at that point. If the XAU continues lower, then the model would use 146.80 as a Stop Loss point to liquidate the position. If neither is hit, then the position will be liquidated in 9-10 trading days. If the XAU rises above 165.9, then raise the Stop Loss to breakeven.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up +8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now 100% in cash. Currently, the overall prediction numbers are slightly positive.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not consistently trading it until it proves itself (although I did take this recent sell signal, because of other factors that agreed with a sell off). The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... currently this model is 100% short from 1874.00. Target profit at 1780.00 and Stop Loss at 1982.00.
SP500 Long Term Model : This model is short 33% from 1092.40. Based on past model performance and the current oversold condition, I will go 33% short if the SP500 gets up to 1108.00.
Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53. This model switched to cash at 1096.78 (on the close 1/25/10).
Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0%.
Sunday, January 24, 2010
For Mon, 1/25, close:
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are positive now. The model gave a buy signal on the close, 1/21 with XAU at 159.49. If the XAU were to get up to 176.05, then profits should be taken at that point. If the XAU continues lower, then the model would use 146.80 as a Stop Loss point to liquidate the position. If neither is hit, then the position will be liquidated in 9-10 trading days. If the XAU rises above 165.9, then raise the Stop Loss to breakeven.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up +8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now 100% in cash. Currently, the overall prediction numbers are slightly positive.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not consistently trading it until it proves itself (although I did take this recent sell signal, because of other factors that agreed with a sell off). The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... currently this model is 100% short from 1874.00. Target profit at 1780.00 and Stop Loss at 1982.00.
SP500 Long Term Model : This model is 100% long. The model does give a reverse to sell signal. The model will officially go short 33% monday morning at the open. Based on past model performance and the current oversold condition, I will Sell if the SP500 gets up to 1112.00.
Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53. This model now switches to cash. Move positions from stock funds to money market. If Monday 1/25 is down then wait to move positions to cash on Tuesday's close. If Monday is up, move positions to cash on Monday's close.
Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0%.
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are positive now. The model gave a buy signal on the close, 1/21 with XAU at 159.49. If the XAU were to get up to 176.05, then profits should be taken at that point. If the XAU continues lower, then the model would use 146.80 as a Stop Loss point to liquidate the position. If neither is hit, then the position will be liquidated in 9-10 trading days. If the XAU rises above 165.9, then raise the Stop Loss to breakeven.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up +8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now 100% in cash. Currently, the overall prediction numbers are slightly positive.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not consistently trading it until it proves itself (although I did take this recent sell signal, because of other factors that agreed with a sell off). The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... currently this model is 100% short from 1874.00. Target profit at 1780.00 and Stop Loss at 1982.00.
SP500 Long Term Model : This model is 100% long. The model does give a reverse to sell signal. The model will officially go short 33% monday morning at the open. Based on past model performance and the current oversold condition, I will Sell if the SP500 gets up to 1112.00.
Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53. This model now switches to cash. Move positions from stock funds to money market. If Monday 1/25 is down then wait to move positions to cash on Tuesday's close. If Monday is up, move positions to cash on Monday's close.
Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0%.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
For Fri, 1/22, close:
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are positive now. The model gave a buy signal on the close, 1/21 with XAU at 159.49. If the XAU were to reverse and get up to 176.05, then profits should be taken at that point. If the XAU continues lower, then the model would use 146.80 as a Stop Loss point to liquidate the position. If neither is hit, then the position will be liquidated in 9-10 trading days.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up +8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now 100% in cash. For 2010, so far, this model is down -1.2%. Currently, the overall prediction numbers are slightly positive.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not consistently trading it until it proves itself (although I did take this recent sell signal, because of other factors that agreed with a sell off). The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... currently this model is 100% short from 1874.00. Target profit at 1780.00 and Stop Loss at 1982.00.
SP500 Long Term Model : Thursday, 1/21, 1115.00 was hit, so this model is back to 100% long. It is likely that this model COULD reverse to a sell signal with this weekend's analysis. Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53. Still in a Long position, 100% invested in the stock market. Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0%. For 2010, so far, the SP500 "Long Only" model is up +1.9%.
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are positive now. The model gave a buy signal on the close, 1/21 with XAU at 159.49. If the XAU were to reverse and get up to 176.05, then profits should be taken at that point. If the XAU continues lower, then the model would use 146.80 as a Stop Loss point to liquidate the position. If neither is hit, then the position will be liquidated in 9-10 trading days.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up +8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now 100% in cash. For 2010, so far, this model is down -1.2%. Currently, the overall prediction numbers are slightly positive.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not consistently trading it until it proves itself (although I did take this recent sell signal, because of other factors that agreed with a sell off). The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... currently this model is 100% short from 1874.00. Target profit at 1780.00 and Stop Loss at 1982.00.
SP500 Long Term Model : Thursday, 1/21, 1115.00 was hit, so this model is back to 100% long. It is likely that this model COULD reverse to a sell signal with this weekend's analysis. Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53. Still in a Long position, 100% invested in the stock market. Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0%. For 2010, so far, the SP500 "Long Only" model is up +1.9%.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
For Thur, 1/21, close:
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are positive now. The model gives a buy signal on the close, 1/21.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up +8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now 100% in cash. For 2010, so far, this model is down -1.2%. Currently, the overall prediction numbers are slightly positive.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not actively trading it until it proves itself. The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... currently this model is 100% short from 1874.00. Target profit at 1780.00 and Stop Loss at 1982.00.
SP500 Long Term Model : Last change in position: From 100% Long to 67% Long position on the close 12/31, at 1115.00. Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often. At 1115.00 (new) for the SP500, the model will move to a 100% Long position again (currently 67% long). For 2010, so far, the SP500 model is up +1.3%.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53. Still in a Long position, 100% invested in the stock market. Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0%. For 2010, so far, the SP500 "Long Only" model is up +1.9%.
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are positive now. The model gives a buy signal on the close, 1/21.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up +8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now 100% in cash. For 2010, so far, this model is down -1.2%. Currently, the overall prediction numbers are slightly positive.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not actively trading it until it proves itself. The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... currently this model is 100% short from 1874.00. Target profit at 1780.00 and Stop Loss at 1982.00.
SP500 Long Term Model : Last change in position: From 100% Long to 67% Long position on the close 12/31, at 1115.00. Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often. At 1115.00 (new) for the SP500, the model will move to a 100% Long position again (currently 67% long). For 2010, so far, the SP500 model is up +1.3%.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53. Still in a Long position, 100% invested in the stock market. Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0%. For 2010, so far, the SP500 "Long Only" model is up +1.9%.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
For Wed, 1/20, close:
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are positive now. The model is in a 100% cash position. Looks like we are close to a buy signal. For 2010, so far, the gold stock model is up +4.6%.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up +8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now 100% in cash. For 2010, so far, this model is down -1.2%. Currently, the overall prediction numbers are neutral/negative.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not actively trading it until it proves itself. The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... currently this model is 100% short from 1874.00. Target profit at 1780.00 and Stop Loss at 1982.00.
SP500 Long Term Model : Last change in position: From 100% Long to 67% Long position on the close 12/31, at 1115.00. Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often. At 1104.00 for the SP500, the model will move to a 100% Long position again (currently 67% long). For 2010, so far, the SP500 model is up +1.3%.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53. Still in a Long position, 100% invested in the stock market. Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0%. For 2010, so far, the SP500 "Long Only" model is up +1.9%.
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are positive now. The model is in a 100% cash position. Looks like we are close to a buy signal. For 2010, so far, the gold stock model is up +4.6%.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up +8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now 100% in cash. For 2010, so far, this model is down -1.2%. Currently, the overall prediction numbers are neutral/negative.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not actively trading it until it proves itself. The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... currently this model is 100% short from 1874.00. Target profit at 1780.00 and Stop Loss at 1982.00.
SP500 Long Term Model : Last change in position: From 100% Long to 67% Long position on the close 12/31, at 1115.00. Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often. At 1104.00 for the SP500, the model will move to a 100% Long position again (currently 67% long). For 2010, so far, the SP500 model is up +1.3%.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53. Still in a Long position, 100% invested in the stock market. Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0%. For 2010, so far, the SP500 "Long Only" model is up +1.9%.
Monday, January 18, 2010
Portfolio Approach: Here is what I have mid-January, based on an approach (again, see blog "Combining the Models" on 12/31/09) that allocated 35% to the NDX 3-4 Day model using 3x leverage and 25% to the SP 500 Model using 3x leverage and 40% to the Gold Stock model using no leverage: so far for January 2010, up +1.85%. Currently one would be 75% in cash, 25% long the SP 500.
For Tue, 1/19, close:
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are positive now. The model is in a 100% cash position. There is a chance that we could get a buy signal for Wednesday's close. For 2010, so far, the gold stock model is up +4.6%.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up +8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now 100% in cash. For 2010, so far, this model is down -1.2%. Currently, the overall prediction numbers are neutral/negative.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not actively trading it until it proves itself. The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... currently this model is 100% long, but says to get SHORT the NDX from 1874.00 or higher.
SP500 Long Term Model : Last change in position: From 100% Long to 67% Long position on the close 12/31, at 1115.00. Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often. At 1104.00 for the SP500, the model will move to a 100% Long position again (currently 67% long). For 2010, so far, the SP500 model is up +1.3%.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53. Still in a Long position, 100% invested in the stock market. Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0%. For 2010, so far, the SP500 "Long Only" model is up +1.9%.
Portfolio Approach: Dividing one's portfolio between 3 models (see the blog on 12/31/09), we have so far for 2010: Gold Stock Model up +4.6%, the SP 500 Model up +1.3% and the NDX 3-4 Day Model down -1.2%.
Currently, as of 1/18/10, the Gold Stock model is 100% in cash, SP500 model 33% in cash, and NDX 3-4 Day model is 100% in cash.
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are positive now. The model is in a 100% cash position. There is a chance that we could get a buy signal for Wednesday's close. For 2010, so far, the gold stock model is up +4.6%.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up +8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now 100% in cash. For 2010, so far, this model is down -1.2%. Currently, the overall prediction numbers are neutral/negative.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not actively trading it until it proves itself. The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... currently this model is 100% long, but says to get SHORT the NDX from 1874.00 or higher.
SP500 Long Term Model : Last change in position: From 100% Long to 67% Long position on the close 12/31, at 1115.00. Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often. At 1104.00 for the SP500, the model will move to a 100% Long position again (currently 67% long). For 2010, so far, the SP500 model is up +1.3%.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53. Still in a Long position, 100% invested in the stock market. Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0%. For 2010, so far, the SP500 "Long Only" model is up +1.9%.
Portfolio Approach: Dividing one's portfolio between 3 models (see the blog on 12/31/09), we have so far for 2010: Gold Stock Model up +4.6%, the SP 500 Model up +1.3% and the NDX 3-4 Day Model down -1.2%.
Currently, as of 1/18/10, the Gold Stock model is 100% in cash, SP500 model 33% in cash, and NDX 3-4 Day model is 100% in cash.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
For Wed, 1/13, close:
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are minimally positive now. Now in a 100% cash position.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 14 trades, up +7.1%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now back in cash.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not actively trading it until it proves itself. The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... was in a 100% short position, as of the close 12/29, at 1872.00. On the Close, now gives a BUY signal, for 1/13.
SP500 Long Term Model : Last change in position: From 100% Long to 67% Long position on the close 12/31, at 1115.00. Up +30.5% for 2009. Last year, 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch this often, but, this model will buy back the 1/3 position that it sold at 1115 on 12/31. At 1104.00 for the SP500, the model will move to a 100% Long position again.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53. Still in a Long position, 100% invested in the stock market. Up +37.7% for 2009. Last year, 2008, down -4.0%.
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are minimally positive now. Now in a 100% cash position.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 14 trades, up +7.1%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now back in cash.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not actively trading it until it proves itself. The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... was in a 100% short position, as of the close 12/29, at 1872.00. On the Close, now gives a BUY signal, for 1/13.
SP500 Long Term Model : Last change in position: From 100% Long to 67% Long position on the close 12/31, at 1115.00. Up +30.5% for 2009. Last year, 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch this often, but, this model will buy back the 1/3 position that it sold at 1115 on 12/31. At 1104.00 for the SP500, the model will move to a 100% Long position again.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53. Still in a Long position, 100% invested in the stock market. Up +37.7% for 2009. Last year, 2008, down -4.0%.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
For Mon, 1/11, close:
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are minimally positive now. Now in a 100% Long position. The model went long with the XAU index at 171.29 and GDX at 46.87. Look to exit if the XAU index gets up to 189.27. Model is using 157.59 on the XAU as a Stop Loss point. So it will liquidate back to cash if the XAU hits 189.27 or 157.59. Regardless, the model will close out the position, back to cash, on the close 1/12.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 14 trades, up +7.1%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now back in cash. BUT, the prediction numbers are VERY negative right now. There will be at least a 2% move down from here sometime in the next few/several days. I won't predict a huge sell-off, but with the prediction numbers where they are, that is possible. I think the 3-4 day Model just happened to give the sell signal a couple days early.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not actively trading it until it proves itself. The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... is now in a 100% short position, as of the close 12/29, at 1872.00. Given where the prediction numbers are at, this should be a winning signal.
SP500 Long Term Model : Last change in position: From 100% Long to 67% Long position on the close 12/31, at 1115.00. Up +30.5% for 2009. Last year, 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch this often, but, this model will buy back the 1/3 position that it sold at 1115 on 12/31. At 1104.00 for the SP500, the model will move to a 100% Long position again.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53. Still in a Long position, 100% invested in the stock market. Up +37.7% for 2009. Last year, 2008, down -4.0%.
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are minimally positive now. Now in a 100% Long position. The model went long with the XAU index at 171.29 and GDX at 46.87. Look to exit if the XAU index gets up to 189.27. Model is using 157.59 on the XAU as a Stop Loss point. So it will liquidate back to cash if the XAU hits 189.27 or 157.59. Regardless, the model will close out the position, back to cash, on the close 1/12.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 14 trades, up +7.1%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now back in cash. BUT, the prediction numbers are VERY negative right now. There will be at least a 2% move down from here sometime in the next few/several days. I won't predict a huge sell-off, but with the prediction numbers where they are, that is possible. I think the 3-4 day Model just happened to give the sell signal a couple days early.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not actively trading it until it proves itself. The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... is now in a 100% short position, as of the close 12/29, at 1872.00. Given where the prediction numbers are at, this should be a winning signal.
SP500 Long Term Model : Last change in position: From 100% Long to 67% Long position on the close 12/31, at 1115.00. Up +30.5% for 2009. Last year, 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch this often, but, this model will buy back the 1/3 position that it sold at 1115 on 12/31. At 1104.00 for the SP500, the model will move to a 100% Long position again.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53. Still in a Long position, 100% invested in the stock market. Up +37.7% for 2009. Last year, 2008, down -4.0%.
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
For Thur, 1/7, close:
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are minimally positive now. Now in a 100% Long position. The model went long with the XAU index at 171.29 and GDX at 46.87. Look to exit if the XAU index gets up to 189.27. Model is using 157.59 on the XAU as a Stop Loss point. So it will liquidate back to cash if the XAU hits 189.27 or 157.59. Also, with the run up in prices, I would exit with a profit, if the prices drop 3% from Wednesday's close.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 14 trades, up +7.1%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now back in cash with a slight loss. BUT, the prediction numbers are VERY negative right now. There will be at least a 2% move down from here sometime in the next few/several days. I won't predict a huge sell-off, but with the prediction numbers where they are, that is possible. I think the 3-4 day Model just happened to give the sell signal a couple days early.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not actively trading it until it proves itself. The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... is now in a 100% short position, as of the close 12/29, at 1872.00. Given where the prediction numbers are at, this should be a winning signal.
SP500 Long Term Model : Last change in position: From 100% Long to 67% Long position on the close 12/31, at 1115.00. Up +30.5% for 2009. Last year, 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch this often, but, this model will buy back the 1/3 position that it sold at 1115 on 12/31. At 1104.00 for the SP500, the model will move to a 100% Long position again.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53. Still in a Long position, 100% invested in the stock market. Up +37.7% for 2009. Last year, 2008, down -4.0%.
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are minimally positive now. Now in a 100% Long position. The model went long with the XAU index at 171.29 and GDX at 46.87. Look to exit if the XAU index gets up to 189.27. Model is using 157.59 on the XAU as a Stop Loss point. So it will liquidate back to cash if the XAU hits 189.27 or 157.59. Also, with the run up in prices, I would exit with a profit, if the prices drop 3% from Wednesday's close.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 14 trades, up +7.1%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now back in cash with a slight loss. BUT, the prediction numbers are VERY negative right now. There will be at least a 2% move down from here sometime in the next few/several days. I won't predict a huge sell-off, but with the prediction numbers where they are, that is possible. I think the 3-4 day Model just happened to give the sell signal a couple days early.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not actively trading it until it proves itself. The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... is now in a 100% short position, as of the close 12/29, at 1872.00. Given where the prediction numbers are at, this should be a winning signal.
SP500 Long Term Model : Last change in position: From 100% Long to 67% Long position on the close 12/31, at 1115.00. Up +30.5% for 2009. Last year, 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch this often, but, this model will buy back the 1/3 position that it sold at 1115 on 12/31. At 1104.00 for the SP500, the model will move to a 100% Long position again.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53. Still in a Long position, 100% invested in the stock market. Up +37.7% for 2009. Last year, 2008, down -4.0%.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
For Tue, 1/5, close:
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 14 trades, up +7.1%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model gave a NEW SELL signal for on the close 12/30, so it is currently on a sell signal. Although the prediction numbers are indicating a down move from here, the model is traded mechanically, and it will liquidate 1/2 of the short position, back to cash, on the close 1/5 Tuesday. Then the remaining 1/2 of the position will be liquidated back to cash tomorrow, on the close 1/6 Wednesday.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 14 trades, up +7.1%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model gave a NEW SELL signal for on the close 12/30, so it is currently on a sell signal. Although the prediction numbers are indicating a down move from here, the model is traded mechanically, and it will liquidate 1/2 of the short position, back to cash, on the close 1/5 Tuesday. Then the remaining 1/2 of the position will be liquidated back to cash tomorrow, on the close 1/6 Wednesday.
Sunday, January 3, 2010
For Mon, 1/4, close:
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are slightly positive now. Now in a 100% Long position. The model went long with the XAU index at 171.29 and GDX at 46.87. Look to exit if the XAU index gets up to 189.27. Model is using 157.59 on the XAU as a Stop Loss point. So it will liquidate back to cash if the XAU hits 189.27 or 157.59.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 14 trades, up +7.1%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model gave a NEW SELL signal for on the close 12/30, so it is currently on a sell signal. The model will liquidate 1/2 of the short position, back to cash, on the close 1/5 Tuesday. Then the remaining 1/2 of the position will be liquidated back to cash on the close 1/6 Wednesday.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not actively trading it until it proves itself. The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... is now in a 100% short position, as of the close 12/29, at 1872.00.
SP500 Long Term Model : Last change in position: From 100% Long to 67% Long position on the close 12/31, at 1115.00. Up +30.5% for 2009. Last year, 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch this often, but, this model will buy back the 1/3 position that it sold at 1115 on 12/31. At 1104.00 for the SP500, the model will move to a 100% Long position again.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53. Still in a Long position, 100% invested in the stock market. Up +37.7% for 2009. Last year, 2008, down -4.0%.
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are slightly positive now. Now in a 100% Long position. The model went long with the XAU index at 171.29 and GDX at 46.87. Look to exit if the XAU index gets up to 189.27. Model is using 157.59 on the XAU as a Stop Loss point. So it will liquidate back to cash if the XAU hits 189.27 or 157.59.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 14 trades, up +7.1%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model gave a NEW SELL signal for on the close 12/30, so it is currently on a sell signal. The model will liquidate 1/2 of the short position, back to cash, on the close 1/5 Tuesday. Then the remaining 1/2 of the position will be liquidated back to cash on the close 1/6 Wednesday.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not actively trading it until it proves itself. The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... is now in a 100% short position, as of the close 12/29, at 1872.00.
SP500 Long Term Model : Last change in position: From 100% Long to 67% Long position on the close 12/31, at 1115.00. Up +30.5% for 2009. Last year, 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch this often, but, this model will buy back the 1/3 position that it sold at 1115 on 12/31. At 1104.00 for the SP500, the model will move to a 100% Long position again.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53. Still in a Long position, 100% invested in the stock market. Up +37.7% for 2009. Last year, 2008, down -4.0%.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model
In my posts I will comment on the SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model.
Many people are in accounts where they can only "go long" the market, ie they only have the ability to buy stock funds, or switch their money to a money market. They do not have the ability to "go short" the market. Maybe you have a retirement account or life insurance policy that lets you exchange between several stock funds and bond funds, or you can move your money to a money market fund. You can not buy "inverse" ETF's that would let you profit from down moves in the stock market. The best you can do is to move your money to a money market fund when the stock market is moving down.
Based on the SP500 Long Term Model I will report a SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model that either is "Long the Market" (ie. buy stock funds) or is "in cash" (ie. in money market funds). For now, the signals are infrequent and simply are either: 1) be long the market with all your funds invested in stock funds, or 2) be in cash, that is, move all your money to the money market.
This is how the SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model would have traded for 2008:
12/31/07 it already was Long the market
1/14/08 it went to cash, SP at 1416.25
4/14/08 it went Long the market, SP at 1328.32
6/9/08 it went to cash, SP at 1361.76
8/11/08 it went Long the market, SP at 1285.83
9/8/08 it went to cash, SP at 1267.79
So for 2008 it LOST -4.0% (does not include any money accrued while in the money market)
... for 2009:
It started 2009 in cash (9/8/08) and stayed there until 3/30/09.
3/30/09 it went Long the market, SP at 787.53
and remained Long the rest of the year ...
So for 2009, it made + 37.7%
The combined return for 2008 and 2009 for the SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model was + 32.2%.
Many people are in accounts where they can only "go long" the market, ie they only have the ability to buy stock funds, or switch their money to a money market. They do not have the ability to "go short" the market. Maybe you have a retirement account or life insurance policy that lets you exchange between several stock funds and bond funds, or you can move your money to a money market fund. You can not buy "inverse" ETF's that would let you profit from down moves in the stock market. The best you can do is to move your money to a money market fund when the stock market is moving down.
Based on the SP500 Long Term Model I will report a SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model that either is "Long the Market" (ie. buy stock funds) or is "in cash" (ie. in money market funds). For now, the signals are infrequent and simply are either: 1) be long the market with all your funds invested in stock funds, or 2) be in cash, that is, move all your money to the money market.
This is how the SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model would have traded for 2008:
12/31/07 it already was Long the market
1/14/08 it went to cash, SP at 1416.25
4/14/08 it went Long the market, SP at 1328.32
6/9/08 it went to cash, SP at 1361.76
8/11/08 it went Long the market, SP at 1285.83
9/8/08 it went to cash, SP at 1267.79
So for 2008 it LOST -4.0% (does not include any money accrued while in the money market)
... for 2009:
It started 2009 in cash (9/8/08) and stayed there until 3/30/09.
3/30/09 it went Long the market, SP at 787.53
and remained Long the rest of the year ...
So for 2009, it made + 37.7%
The combined return for 2008 and 2009 for the SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model was + 32.2%.
Friday, January 1, 2010
General Notes on Investing with ETF’s
All the models I use generate buy signals and sell signals. A sell signal on the SP500 means simply that the model expects the price of the SP500 to drop. A buy signal expects the price of the SP500 to rise. If one has a general brokerage account, when a sell signal is given, one can sell shares of the SPY, the ETF that tracks with the SP500. To sell shares that you do not own, you will need a margin account. So one would sell shares of the SPY, then the SP500 and the SPY would go down, hopefully, and one would buy your shares at a lower level, a few or several days later. Sell high, then buy low… one makes money that way.
Federal laws, I believe… but I am not a tax lawyer, do not allow margin for any retirement account (IRA or 401K). So what do you do if a sell signal is given by one of the models? The answer is: use inverse funds or inverse ETF’s. Inverse ETF’s track inversely (that is, in the opposite direction) to the underlying entity. The SPY mentioned above tracks with the SP500. If the SP500 goes up 1%, the SPY goes up 1% (about). If the SP500 goes down 1.2%, the SPY goes down 1.2% (about)… so it tracks (or mimics) the SP500.
The ETF with the symbol SH tracks inversely with SP500. If the SP500 goes up 1%, the SH goes down 1% (about). If the SP500 goes down 1.2%, the SH goes up 1.2% (about)… so it tracks inverse (or opposite) to the SP500.
So if you have an account that does not have margin, like an IRA or 401K, when the SP500 gives a sell signal, then you could buy shares of SH. What would happen? Hopefully, the SP500 would go down, as the model was predicting, and the SH (because it is an inverse ETF) would do the opposite to the SP500… the SH would go up. You buy the SH low, then sell the SH high… one makes money that way. You made money while the SP500 was dropping.
Leverage
There are ETF’s that are leveraged, for both the SP500 index (SPX) and the Nasdaq 100 index (NDX). For example, the SSO tracks with the SP500, but with 2x leverage. If the SP500 goes up 1%, the SSO goes up 2% (about). If the SP500 goes down 1.2%, the SSO goes down 2.4% (about)… so it tracks (or mimics) the SP500 with 2x leverage.
The ETF with the symbol SDS tracks 2x inversely the SP500. If the SP500 goes up 1%, the SDS goes down 2% (about). If the SP500 goes down 1.2%, the SDS goes up 2.4% (about)… so it tracks 2x inverse (or opposite) to the SP500.
There are ETF’s that are leveraged 3x for the SP500 index (SPX). For example, the UPRO tracks with the SP500, but with 3x leverage. If the SP500 goes up 1%, the UPRO goes up 3% (about). If the SP500 goes down 1.2%, the UPRO goes down 3.6% (about)… so it tracks (or mimics) the SP500 with 3x leverage.
The ETF with the symbol SPXU tracks 3x inversely the SP500. If the SP500 goes up 1%, the SPXU goes down 3% (about). If the SP500 goes down 1.2%, the SPXU goes up 3.6% (about)… so it tracks 3x inverse (or opposite) to the SP500.
For the Nasdaq 100 index (NDX)…
The QQQQ ETF tracks with the NDX. If the NDX goes up 1%, the QQQQ goes up 1% (about). If the NDX goes down 1.2%, the QQQQ goes down 1.2% (about)… so it tracks (or mimics) the NDX.
The ETF with the symbol PSQ tracks inversely with NDX. If the NDX goes up 1%, the PSQ goes down 1% (about). If the NDX goes down 1.2%, the PSQ goes up 1.2% (about)… so it tracks inverse (or opposite) to the NDX.
The QLD tracks with the NDX, but with 2x leverage. If the NDX goes up 1%, the QLD goes up 2% (about). If the NDX goes down 1.2%, the QLD goes down 2.4% (about)… so it tracks (or mimics) the NDX with 2x leverage.
The ETF with the symbol QID tracks 2x inversely the NDX. If the NDX goes up 1%, the QID goes down 2% (about). If the NDX goes down 1.2%, the QID goes up 2.4% (about)… so it tracks 2x inverse (or opposite) to the NDX.
I am looking for ETF’s that are leveraged 3x the NDX. There is a small cap ETF that I have used in place of the NDX when looking for 3x leverage, with the NDX 3-4 Day Model signals. The TNA tracks with 3x leverage the small cap stocks and is used for buy signals. The TZA tracks 3x inverse the small cap stocks and is used for sell signals with the NDX 3-4 Day Model.
Something should be obvious, using leverage increases the risk to your portfolio.
Federal laws, I believe… but I am not a tax lawyer, do not allow margin for any retirement account (IRA or 401K). So what do you do if a sell signal is given by one of the models? The answer is: use inverse funds or inverse ETF’s. Inverse ETF’s track inversely (that is, in the opposite direction) to the underlying entity. The SPY mentioned above tracks with the SP500. If the SP500 goes up 1%, the SPY goes up 1% (about). If the SP500 goes down 1.2%, the SPY goes down 1.2% (about)… so it tracks (or mimics) the SP500.
The ETF with the symbol SH tracks inversely with SP500. If the SP500 goes up 1%, the SH goes down 1% (about). If the SP500 goes down 1.2%, the SH goes up 1.2% (about)… so it tracks inverse (or opposite) to the SP500.
So if you have an account that does not have margin, like an IRA or 401K, when the SP500 gives a sell signal, then you could buy shares of SH. What would happen? Hopefully, the SP500 would go down, as the model was predicting, and the SH (because it is an inverse ETF) would do the opposite to the SP500… the SH would go up. You buy the SH low, then sell the SH high… one makes money that way. You made money while the SP500 was dropping.
Leverage
There are ETF’s that are leveraged, for both the SP500 index (SPX) and the Nasdaq 100 index (NDX). For example, the SSO tracks with the SP500, but with 2x leverage. If the SP500 goes up 1%, the SSO goes up 2% (about). If the SP500 goes down 1.2%, the SSO goes down 2.4% (about)… so it tracks (or mimics) the SP500 with 2x leverage.
The ETF with the symbol SDS tracks 2x inversely the SP500. If the SP500 goes up 1%, the SDS goes down 2% (about). If the SP500 goes down 1.2%, the SDS goes up 2.4% (about)… so it tracks 2x inverse (or opposite) to the SP500.
There are ETF’s that are leveraged 3x for the SP500 index (SPX). For example, the UPRO tracks with the SP500, but with 3x leverage. If the SP500 goes up 1%, the UPRO goes up 3% (about). If the SP500 goes down 1.2%, the UPRO goes down 3.6% (about)… so it tracks (or mimics) the SP500 with 3x leverage.
The ETF with the symbol SPXU tracks 3x inversely the SP500. If the SP500 goes up 1%, the SPXU goes down 3% (about). If the SP500 goes down 1.2%, the SPXU goes up 3.6% (about)… so it tracks 3x inverse (or opposite) to the SP500.
For the Nasdaq 100 index (NDX)…
The QQQQ ETF tracks with the NDX. If the NDX goes up 1%, the QQQQ goes up 1% (about). If the NDX goes down 1.2%, the QQQQ goes down 1.2% (about)… so it tracks (or mimics) the NDX.
The ETF with the symbol PSQ tracks inversely with NDX. If the NDX goes up 1%, the PSQ goes down 1% (about). If the NDX goes down 1.2%, the PSQ goes up 1.2% (about)… so it tracks inverse (or opposite) to the NDX.
The QLD tracks with the NDX, but with 2x leverage. If the NDX goes up 1%, the QLD goes up 2% (about). If the NDX goes down 1.2%, the QLD goes down 2.4% (about)… so it tracks (or mimics) the NDX with 2x leverage.
The ETF with the symbol QID tracks 2x inversely the NDX. If the NDX goes up 1%, the QID goes down 2% (about). If the NDX goes down 1.2%, the QID goes up 2.4% (about)… so it tracks 2x inverse (or opposite) to the NDX.
I am looking for ETF’s that are leveraged 3x the NDX. There is a small cap ETF that I have used in place of the NDX when looking for 3x leverage, with the NDX 3-4 Day Model signals. The TNA tracks with 3x leverage the small cap stocks and is used for buy signals. The TZA tracks 3x inverse the small cap stocks and is used for sell signals with the NDX 3-4 Day Model.
Something should be obvious, using leverage increases the risk to your portfolio.
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