Thursday, October 29, 2009

For Fri Oct 30
Gold stock model goes to 33% Short signal

NDX model goes to neutral position.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

For Thur Oct 29
Gold stock model will reduce position to 33% Long.

No other change.

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

For Wed Oct 28
No changes to models

Monday, October 26, 2009

For Tue, 10/27, close:
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are slightly positive. A 100% long position is indicated.

NDX Nasdaq 100: 2 Models to follow
The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions and about 46% of the time is in cash. NDX Model: ...on the close, it will go back to a 100% LONG position.

The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 2.75 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 14 trades, up +23.7%. NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now back in cash.

SP500 Long Term Model : Remains 100% Long position at 1058.00
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53
SP500 Long Term Model : Remains 100% Long position at 1058.00
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53

Both have done well this year. The SP500 Long Term Model is up close to 40%. The "Long only" model went long at 787 and the SP500 is at 1080.
I would be very conservative about investing new money into the Long positions these models have right now. The risk is very high.
For the SP500 Long Term Model : I would wait until it gives a sell signal.
For the SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : I would wait until the SP500 gets down to the 970 - 980 area.
On Mon, 10/26, close:
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are slightly positive. A 100% long position is indicated.

NDX Nasdaq 100: 2 Models to follow
The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions and about 46% of the time is in cash. NDX Model: ...on the close Monday, it goes back to a 100% Cash position.

The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 2.75 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now back in cash.

SP500 Long Term Model : Remains 100% Long position at 1058.00
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53

Thursday, October 22, 2009

On Fri, 10/23, close:
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers were slightly positive. A 100% long position is indicated.

NDX Nasdaq 100: 2 Models to follow
The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions and about 46% of the time is in cash. NDX Model: Has been in cash for a bit, but on the close Friday, 10/23/09 it goes to a 50% Short position.

The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 2.75 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now back in cash.

SP500 Long Term Model : Remains 100% Long position at 1058.00
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

On Thur, 10/22, close:
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers were slightly positive. A 100% long position is indicated.

NDX Nasdaq 100: 2 Models to follow
The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions and about 46% of the time is in cash. NDX Model: will remain in a cash position on the close.

The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 2.75 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is now back in cash.

SP500 Long Term Model : Remains 100% Long position at 1058.00
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53
On Wed, 10/21, close:
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers were slightly positive. A 100% long position is indicated.

NDX Nasdaq 100: 2 Models to follow
The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions and about 46% of the time is in cash. NDX Model: will remain in a cash position on the close.

The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 2.75 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is on a SELL signal, entered on the close Thursday. Exited 1/2 position back to cash on the close Tuesday and the other 1/2 position back to cash on the close Wednesday.

SP500 Long Term Model : Remains 100% Long position at 1058.00
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

On Tue, 10/20, close:
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers were slightly positive. A 100% long position is indicated.

NDX Nasdaq 100: 2 Models to follow
The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions and about 46% of the time is in cash. NDX Model: will remain in a cash position on the close.

The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 2.75 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is on a SELL signal, entered on the close Thursday. Exit 1/2 position back to cash on the close Tuesday and the other 1/2 position back to cash on the close Wednesday.

SP500 Long Term Model : Remains 100% Long position at 1058.00
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53

Sunday, October 18, 2009

On Mon, 10/19, close:
Gold Stock models: For the time being, I will report the general trend based on the pattern recognition daily predictions. The prediction numbers were slightly positive. A 100% long position is indicated.

NDX Nasdaq 100: 2 Models to follow
The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions and about 46% of the time is in cash. NDX Model: will remain in a cash position on the close.

The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 2.75 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model gave a new SELL signal, entered on the close Thursday. Exit 1/2 position back to cash on the close Tuesday and the other 1/2 position back to cash on the close Wednesday.

SP500 Long Term Model : Remains 100% Long position at 1058.00
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53

Thursday, October 15, 2009

On Fri, 10/16, close:
Gold Stock models: For the time being, I will report the general trend based on the pattern recognition daily predictions. Tthe prediction numbers were slightly positive. A 100% long position is indicated.

NDX Nasdaq 100: 2 Models to follow
The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions and about 46% of the time is in cash. NDX Model: will remain in a cash position on the close.

The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 2.75 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model gave a new SELL signal, entered on the close Thursday.

SP500 Long Term Model : Remains 100% Long position at 1058.00
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

On Thur, 10/15, close:
Gold Stock models: For the time being, I will report the general trend based on the pattern recognition daily predictions. On 10/14 the prediction numbers were slightly positive. A neutral position is indicated.

NDX Nasdaq 100: 2 Models to follow
The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions and about 46% of the time is in cash. NDX Model: will remain in a cash position on the close.

The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 2.75 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model gives a new SELL signal, to be entered on the close Thursday.

SP500 Long Term Model : Remains 100% Long position at 1058.00
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

On Wed, 10/14, close:
Gold Stock models: For the time being, I will report the general trend based on the pattern recognition daily predictions. On 10/2 the prediction numbers were very positive. The prediction numbers are negative. Emphasis should be to the short side.

NDX Nasdaq 100: 2 Models to follow
The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions and about 46% of the time is in cash. NDX Model: will go to a cash position on the close.

The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 2.75 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is back in cash. For the year it is up 9.4%.

SP500 Long Term Model : Remains 100% Long position at 1058.00
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53

Monday, October 12, 2009

On Tue, 10/13, close:
Gold Stock models: For the time being, I will report the general trend based on the pattern recognition daily predictions. On 10/2 the prediction numbers were very positive. Now the prediction numbers are very negative. Emphasis should be to the short side.

NDX Nasdaq 100: 2 Models to follow
The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions and about 46% of the time is in cash. NDX Model: will remain in a 50% long position on the close.

The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 2.75 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model gave a BUY signal on the close Wednesday.. NDX at 1710.50 . Exited 1/2 position on Monday's close with a 1.1% gain, and will exit 1/2 position on Tuesday's close. So on the close Tuesday it will be again 100% in cash.

SP500 Long Term Model : Remains 100% Long position at 1058.00
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53

Sunday, October 11, 2009

On Mon, 10/10, close:
Gold Stock models: For the time being, I will report the general trend based on the pattern recognition daily predictions. On 10/2 the prediction numbers were very positive. There is no reversal at this time. These trends seem to last for a few weeks.

NDX Nasdaq 100: 2 Models to follow
The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions and about 46% of the time is in cash. NDX Model: will go to a 50% long position on the close.

The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 2.75 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model gave a BUY signal on the close Wednesday.. NDX at 1710.50 . Will exit 1/2 position on Monday's close, and will exit 1/2 position on Tuesday's close. So on the close Tuesday it will be again 100% in cash.

SP500 Long Term Model : Remains 100% Long position at 1058.00
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53

Thursday, October 8, 2009

On Fri, 10/9, close:
Gold Stock models: 2 Models to follow:
The More Volatile Model is always either long or short.
More Volatile Model: will remain in a Short position on the close.
The Less Volatile Model is in cash about 47% of the time.
Less Volatile Model: will remain in a Short position on the close.

NDX Nasdaq 100: 2 Models to follow
The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions and about 46% of the time is in cash.
NDX Model: will remain in a cash position on the close.
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 2.75 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks.
NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model gave a BUY signal on the close Wednesday.. 1710.50 . Will exit 1/2 position on Monday's close, and will exit 1/2 position on Tuesday's close.

SP500 Long Term Model : Went to 100% Long position at 1058.00, may change next week.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53, may change next week.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

On Thur, 10/8, close:
Gold Stock models: 2 Models to follow:
The More Volatile Model is always either long or short.
More Volatile Model: will remain in a Short position on the close.
The Less Volatile Model is in cash about 47% of the time.
Less Volatile Model: will remain in a Short position on the close.

NDX Nasdaq 100: 2 Models to follow
The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions and about 46% of the time is in cash.
NDX Model: will remain in a cash position on the close.
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 2.75 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks.
NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model gave a BUY signal on the close Wednesday.. 1710.50 . Will exit 1/2 position on Monday's close, and will exit 1/2 position on Tuesday's close.

SP500 Long Term Model : Went to 100% Long position at 1058.00, may change next week.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53, may change next week.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

On Wed, 10/7, close:
Gold Stock models: 2 Models to follow:
The More Volatile Model is always either long or short.
More Volatile Model: will go to a Short position on the close.
The Less Volatile Model is in cash about 47% of the time.
Less Volatile Model: will go to a Short position on the close.

NDX Nasdaq 100: 2 Models to follow
The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions and about 46% of the time is in cash.
NDX Model: will remain in a cash position on the close.
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 2.75 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks.
NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model gives a BUY signal on the close Wednesday... for 3-4 days

SP500 Long Term Model : Went to 100% Long position at 1058.00, may change next week.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53, may change next week.

Monday, October 5, 2009

On Tue, 10/6, close:
Gold Stock models: 2 Models to follow:
The More Volatile Model is always either long or short.
More Volatile Model: will go to a cash position on the close.
The Less Volatile Model is in cash about 47% of the time.
Less Volatile Model: will rgo to a cash position on the close.

NDX Nasdaq 100: 2 Models to follow
The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions and about 46% of the time is in cash.
NDX Model: will go to a cash position on the close.
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 2.75 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks.
NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is in cash.

SP500 Long Term Model : Went to 100% Long position at 1058.00, may change next week.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53, may change next week.

Sunday, October 4, 2009

On Mon, 10/5, close:
Gold Stock models: 2 Models to follow:
The More Volatile Model is always either long or short.
More Volatile Model: will remain in a Short position on the close.
The Less Volatile Model is in cash about 47% of the time.
Less Volatile Model: will remain in a Short position on the close.

NDX Nasdaq 100: 2 Models to follow
The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions and about 46% of the time is in cash.
NDX Model: will remain in a Short position on the close.
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 2.75 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks.
NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is in cash.

SP500 Long Term Model : Went to 100% Long position at 1058.00, may change next week.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53, may change next week.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

On Fri, 10/2, close:
Gold Stock models: 2 Models to follow:
The More Volatile Model is always either long or short.
More Volatile Model: will remain in a Short position on the close.
The Less Volatile Model is in cash about 47% of the time.
Less Volatile Model: will remain in a Short position on the close.

NDX Nasdaq 100: 2 Models to follow
The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions and about 46% of the time is in cash.
NDX Model: will remain in a Short position on the close.
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 2.75 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks.
NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : the model is in cash.

SP500 Long Term Model : Went to 100% Long position at 1058.00
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53
Regarding the SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model:
Many people are in accounts where they can only "go long" the market, ie they only have the ability to buy stock funds, or switch their money to a money market, and they do not have the ability to "go short" the market.

Based on the SP500 Long Term Model I will report a SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model that either is "Long the Market" (ie. buy stock funds) or is "in cash" (ie. in money market funds).

This is how the SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model would have traded last year:
12/31/07 it already was Long the market
1/14/08 it went to cash, SP at 1416.25
4/14/08 it went Long the market, SP at 1328.32
6/9/08 it went to cash, SP at 1361.76
8/11/08 it went Long the market, SP at 1285.83
9/8/08 it went to cash, SP at 1267.79
So for 2008 it LOST -4.0%
It started 2009 in cash (9/8/08) and stayed there until 3/30/09.
3/30/09 it went Long the market, SP at 787.53
And is still Long the market with SP at about 1050...
So for 2009, so far, it is UP + 33.3%

SP500 Long Term Model : Went to 100% Long position at 1058.00
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : Went Long the Market 3/30/09 at 787.53