NDX PR (Pattern Recognition) The prediction numbers: for Mar 27 were 16097 and 16320.. for Mar 28 were 15814 and 16213, and for Mar 31 were 15765 and 16852. The trading plan based off of the prediction numbers will remain on a Buy signal, as of the close April 1.
Monday, March 31, 2008
update Mar 31
XAU PR (Pattern Recognition) The prediction numbers for Mar 27, 28 and 31 have been:14835, 14756, and 16058. My trading signal based off these prediction numbers will remain on a Sell, as of the close April 1.
NDX PR (Pattern Recognition) The prediction numbers: for Mar 27 were 16097 and 16320.. for Mar 28 were 15814 and 16213, and for Mar 31 were 15765 and 16852. The trading plan based off of the prediction numbers will remain on a Buy signal, as of the close April 1.
NDX PR (Pattern Recognition) The prediction numbers: for Mar 27 were 16097 and 16320.. for Mar 28 were 15814 and 16213, and for Mar 31 were 15765 and 16852. The trading plan based off of the prediction numbers will remain on a Buy signal, as of the close April 1.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Mar 26
XAU prediction value was 25586 on Monday, Mar 24 , then 21852 on Mar 25 and 15071 (more back towards normal) today, Mar 26. As I posted, even though the trading system remains short, I exited the short position and remain neutral. I will look for a run up Thursday or Friday to re-enter the short position. The trading plan will definitely remain on a sell signal through the close tomorrow, the 27th.
NDX prediction values were 14851 and 14186 on Monday, Mar 24. They were 16752 and 16596 on Mar 25. The trading plan remains on a Buy signal through the close tomorrow, the 27th.
XAU prediction value was 25586 on Monday, Mar 24 , then 21852 on Mar 25 and 15071 (more back towards normal) today, Mar 26. As I posted, even though the trading system remains short, I exited the short position and remain neutral. I will look for a run up Thursday or Friday to re-enter the short position. The trading plan will definitely remain on a sell signal through the close tomorrow, the 27th.
NDX prediction values were 14851 and 14186 on Monday, Mar 24. They were 16752 and 16596 on Mar 25. The trading plan remains on a Buy signal through the close tomorrow, the 27th.
Sunday, March 23, 2008
Plan of attack
The XAU trading system stays short, but we have a very large positive prediction number given on the close Friday. So I would liquidate the short position (I already have) and wait a few days to see what a bounce looks like.
The NDX100 trading system says to go long on the close. I will look to enter early in the day and not wait until the end of the day.
The NDX100 trading system says to go long on the close. I will look to enter early in the day and not wait until the end of the day.
Friday, March 21, 2008
Thursday, March 20, 2008
Recent History o f My Signals
All signals are as of the close on the date noted.
For the XAU:
3/10 changed from 100% long to 33% long - XAU at 189.05
3/14 100% short - XAU at 206.37
currently 100% short
For the NDX100 (during this very volatile period... and remember these pattern prediction systems are not prediction very short term moves, they are predicting out about 2 weeks)
3/6 changed to Short - NDX 1712.50
low made 3/10, 1672.76
3/11 changed to Long at 1740.95
3/18 changed to Short at 1761.05
currently Short
I do participate in various message boards on-line so these past signals have been reported.
For the XAU:
3/10 changed from 100% long to 33% long - XAU at 189.05
3/14 100% short - XAU at 206.37
currently 100% short
For the NDX100 (during this very volatile period... and remember these pattern prediction systems are not prediction very short term moves, they are predicting out about 2 weeks)
3/6 changed to Short - NDX 1712.50
low made 3/10, 1672.76
3/11 changed to Long at 1740.95
3/18 changed to Short at 1761.05
currently Short
I do participate in various message boards on-line so these past signals have been reported.
The XAU - Gold and Silver Index
Similar to the NDX100, the XAU prediction number oscillates about 15000. The more above 15000, the more likely there will be an up move over the next 2 weeks and the more below 15000, the opposite.
However, I have only one prediction system for the XAU, not 2 like for the NDX. Here are the recent XAU prediction numbers:
I have come up with 2 different trading plans based on these numbers. I combine them into one trading plan that is either long or short the XAU. Again, as with the NDX100, if you would like to receive the prediction numbers going back to the beginning of 2007, just send me an email, pionkowski@comcast.net.
However, I have only one prediction system for the XAU, not 2 like for the NDX. Here are the recent XAU prediction numbers:
| 2/29/2008 | 15628 |
| 3/3/2008 | 17712 |
| 3/4/2008 | 15236 |
| 3/5/2008 | 15782 |
| 3/6/2008 | 17885 |
| 3/7/2008 | 17969 |
| 3/10/2008 | 15142 |
| 3/11/2008 | 16709 |
| 3/12/2008 | 17443 |
| 3/13/2008 | 16021 |
| 3/14/2008 | 17952 |
| 3/17/2008 | 15685 |
| 3/18/2008 | 17001 |
| 3/19/2008 | 16412 |
The NDX100
The NDX100 is based on 2 different prediction systems. Both predict out about 2 weeks. Both have a neutral value of 15000. The more the prediction is above 15000, the more likely the NDX100 is going to be higher, than its current value, in about 2 weeks. And the higher the prediction number, the more likely there will be a strong move in that direction. The opposite is true if the prediction number is below 15000.
For example: A prediction of 15200 says there is a small likelihood of a small move up over the next 2 weeks. A prediction of 18900 says there is a strong likelihood of a strong move up over the next 2 weeks. A prediction of 14800 says there is a small likelihood of a small move down over the next 2 weeks. A prediction of 12800 says there is a strong likelihood of a strong move down over the next 2 weeks.
Here are the predictions for the 2 prediction systems recently:
I have developed my own way of trading off of these numbers to include: 1) a continuous trading system... that is, being always long or short the NDX100 and 2) a short-term trading approach... when I see particular strength (or weakness) I go long (or short) for a short time, looking for a quick 2%-3% move.
I will report the prediction numbers each day and what my trading plans are telling me to do. You need to decide for yourself how to integrate this information into your own trading.
If you would like the prediction numbers going back to the beginning of 2007, perhaps to design your own trading plan based off of these numbers, then let me know... pionkowski@comcast.net
One last thing: The prediction is for about 2 weeks in the future. Is says nothing about what will happen in the interim. One good idea has been, once you get a strong reading (either long or short) is to wait and look for a good entry point in the next few days.
For example: A prediction of 15200 says there is a small likelihood of a small move up over the next 2 weeks. A prediction of 18900 says there is a strong likelihood of a strong move up over the next 2 weeks. A prediction of 14800 says there is a small likelihood of a small move down over the next 2 weeks. A prediction of 12800 says there is a strong likelihood of a strong move down over the next 2 weeks.
Here are the predictions for the 2 prediction systems recently:
| 2/29/2008 | 16722 | 16345 |
| 3/3/2008 | 16429 | 15845 |
| 3/4/2008 | 15147 | 16249 |
| 3/5/2008 | 16727 | 16754 |
| 3/6/2008 | 16104 | 15601 |
| 3/7/2008 | 15061 | 15067 |
| 3/10/2008 | 15670 | 15183 |
| 3/11/2008 | 14612 | 15489 |
| 3/12/2008 | 15646 | 15725 |
| 3/13/2008 | 15424 | 16405 |
| 3/14/2008 | 15924 | 16511 |
| 3/17/2008 | 15244 | 15337 |
| 3/18/2008 | 15416 | 14848 |
| 3/19/2008 | 16530 | 14872 |
I will report the prediction numbers each day and what my trading plans are telling me to do. You need to decide for yourself how to integrate this information into your own trading.
If you would like the prediction numbers going back to the beginning of 2007, perhaps to design your own trading plan based off of these numbers, then let me know... pionkowski@comcast.net
One last thing: The prediction is for about 2 weeks in the future. Is says nothing about what will happen in the interim. One good idea has been, once you get a strong reading (either long or short) is to wait and look for a good entry point in the next few days.
Intro
I have been using an computer algorithm designed to identify patterns in equity and commodity markets since the early 1990's. It is a deductive learning type of algorithm that is not neural net based. By grouping similar events (data points) together in clusters, one can then look at the current (today's) data and see which cluster it fits best into. Based on the past performance (future price changes) of that cluster, one assumes (predicts) that the change from this point in time on will be similar.
I have developed many systems over 15 years, learning slowly what seems to work best, and what doesn't work so well. Currently, two systems of prediction seem to be doing reasonably well - one based on the XAU index (the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index - Gold and Silver stocks) and one base on the Nasdaq 100 Index, the NDX.
I have developed many systems over 15 years, learning slowly what seems to work best, and what doesn't work so well. Currently, two systems of prediction seem to be doing reasonably well - one based on the XAU index (the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index - Gold and Silver stocks) and one base on the Nasdaq 100 Index, the NDX.
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