SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model

In my posts I will comment on the SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model.
Many people are in accounts where they can only "go long" the market, ie they only have the ability to buy stock funds, or switch their money to a money market. They do not have the ability to "go short" the market. Maybe you have a retirement account or life insurance policy that lets you exchange between several stock funds and bond funds, or you can move your money to a money market fund. You can not buy "inverse" ETF's that would let you profit from down moves in the stock market. The best you can do is to move your money to a money market fund when the stock market is moving down.

Based on the SP500 Long Term Model I will report a SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model that either is "Long the Market" (ie. buy stock funds) or is "in cash" (ie. in money market funds). For now, the signals are infrequent and simply are either: 1) be long the market with all your funds invested in stock funds, or 2) be in cash, that is, move all your money to the money market.

This is how the SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model would have traded for 2008:
12/31/07 it already was Long the market
1/14/08 it went to cash, SP at 1416.25
4/14/08 it went Long the market, SP at 1328.32
6/9/08 it went to cash, SP at 1361.76
8/11/08 it went Long the market, SP at 1285.83
9/8/08 it went to cash, SP at 1267.79
So for 2008 it LOST -4.0% (does not include any money accrued while in the money market)

... for 2009:
It started 2009 in cash (9/8/08) and stayed there until 3/30/09.
3/30/09 it went Long the market, SP at 787.53
and remained Long the rest of the year ...
So for 2009, it made + 37.7%

The combined return for 2008 and 2009 for the SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model was + 32.2%.