The models are set up to be purely mechanical, to be easy to trade and help to eliminate emotion. Two days ago the Gold Stock model was only a couple days away from the planned exit (which was 2/4/10). The model had clawed its way back to breakeven two days ago, and with only 2 days left in the trade, I exited at near breakeven on the trade. I will try to report what I am doing with the trades, but I will report the performance of the models as if traded strictly by the trading rules.
Gold Stock models: The prediction numbers are positive now.The model gave a buy signal on the close, 1/21 with XAU at 159.49. The model is now back in cash.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up +8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : Currently, the overall prediction numbers are mildly positive. Currently, on a Sell signal. It is short from 1776.90. Friday, 2/4, is the 3rd day, so the model says to sell 1/2 the position on the close on 2/4/10 (the 3rd day of the trade), and the other 1/2 position on the close Monday, 2/7/10 (the 4th day of the trade). If the SP500 opens lower tomorrow or if it reaches about 1060 anytime on 2/4/10, I will likely close out my whole position with a nice gain.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not consistently trading it until it proves itself. The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... currently this model is 100% in cash. It will go to a Long position on the close ONLY IF the VXN (nasdaq volatility) closes the day below 24.82.
SP500 Long Term Model : This model is short 33% from 1092.40.
Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : This model switched to cash at 1096.78 (on the close 1/25/10). Previous signal: wentLong the SP500 on 3/30/09 at 787.53.
Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0%.
NDX Nasdaq 100:
The NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model has a 3 year history of generating profits, and trades about once every 3 weeks. For 2009, 15 trades, up +8.2%. (2008 was an unusual year, up +66%). NDX Short-term, 3-4 day Model : Currently, the overall prediction numbers are mildly positive. Currently, on a Sell signal. It is short from 1776.90. Friday, 2/4, is the 3rd day, so the model says to sell 1/2 the position on the close on 2/4/10 (the 3rd day of the trade), and the other 1/2 position on the close Monday, 2/7/10 (the 4th day of the trade). If the SP500 opens lower tomorrow or if it reaches about 1060 anytime on 2/4/10, I will likely close out my whole position with a nice gain.
There is another NDX model that deserves watching. I am not consistently trading it until it proves itself. The NDX model moves in and out of long and short positions. NDX Model: ... currently this model is 100% in cash. It will go to a Long position on the close ONLY IF the VXN (nasdaq volatility) closes the day below 24.82.
SP500 Long Term Model : This model is short 33% from 1092.40.
Up +30.5% for 2009. For 2008, up +22.9%. This model does not usually switch often.
SP500 Long Term "Long Only" Model : This model switched to cash at 1096.78 (on the close 1/25/10). Previous signal: wentLong the SP500 on 3/30/09 at 787.53.
Up +37.7% for 2009. For 2008 it was down -4.0%.
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